Atradius’ Transport and Logistics Industry Report for 2025 forecasts global output growth of 4.1% followed by 3.7% growth in 2026. Stronger manufacturing and higher investments across the Americas, Asia Pacific and Europe are supporting this growth in addition to an increase in demand for trade intensive consumer durables due to increased purchasing power and lower financing costs.
USA
Atradius expect the transport and logistics sector in the US to grow by 2.7% in 2025 and 3.2% in 2026. Private consumption in the US is strong which is supporting the demand for shipping of durable and non-durable consumer goods. Since 2023, containers entering US ports have been increasing.
Similar to the chemicals sector, the new administration’s monetary and fiscal policies are expected to boost transport demand. However, import tariff increases imposed by the US and expected retaliation could have a major impact on sector growth. 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico would severely affect the trucking subsector, according to Atradius.
China
Demand for Chinese goods remains high so Atradius forecast output growth for transportation and logistics of 5% in 2025 and 4.8% in 2026. The 10% US tariffs and retaliatory measures are only expected to have a small impact on Chinese exports, however, if there are any larger tariffs imposed by the US then these would have a large negative impact on transportation and logistics growth.
Japan
Atradius expect Japan’s transport and logistics output to grow by 2.9% in 2025 and 2.1% in 2026. An increase in tourism is expected to support the passenger transport sector but there are labour shortages across the sector as a whole.
Eurozone
Atradius expect the modest economic recovery in the region to support transport and logistics output growth of 2% in 2025 after only a 1.2% increase in 2024. Increased consumer demand is expected to support shipping growth of durable and non-durable consumer goods, however the US trade relations present a downside risk.
Germany
Germany is the largest eurozone market, but Atradius estimate that transport and logistics output will only grow by 1.1% in 2025 and 0.8% in 2026. This is reflected by the low GDP growth for 2025, the decline in industrial production and only slight growth in private consumption. Atradius comment that the credit risk is high across these sectors due to thin margins and the competitive environment.
UK
Atradius forecast UK transport and logistics output growth to be 2.5% in 2025 and 2.3% in 2026. Staff shortages are having a major impact on growth in the sector. For the haulage sector, Atradius advise that margins are being squeezed due to wage growth, vehicle replacement expenses and fuel price increases.
A key risk for the sector is cybersecurity, as vulnerabilities have been highlighted by recent attacks. As a result, the insolvency risk in the British transport sector is high.FinCred – Acrisure has expertise and specialist knowledge in the transport and logistics sector and are members of the Independent Automotive Aftermarket Federation a trade association that protects and promotes the automotive aftermarket.
Using this knowledge and expertise, we tailor bespoke policies to protect businesses against the risks associated with trading on credit terms.. Get in touch with one of our specialists today and see how you can mitigate these risks.
